Change course: Regulate the drug market to tackle organized crime

In the process, some terminology is conveniently reversed. The realists who point out that after 75 years of trying, the current form of drug control, with its interceptions and busting of trafficking networks, has failed miserably, and that things must be done differently, for example by legally regulating drug markets, are dismissed as naive. The truly naive, on the other hand, who stubbornly insist despite all evidence to the contrary that organized drug trafficking can be tackled, see themselves as the realists. 

But the figures prove them wrong: In 2023, with over 175,000 kilos of cocaine intercepted, there will be a joint Dutch/Belgian record: an amount more than 2.5 times higher than five years ago, the Dutch daily NRC recently reported. "The global supply of cocaine is at record levels,” the UN Office on Drugs and Crime recently concluded. "Almost 2,000 tons was produced in 2020, continuing a dramatic uptick in manufacture that began in 2014, when the total was less than half of today’s levels." 

The regular price of a kilo of cocaine arriving in Spain is at an average of 30,128 euros, when a few years ago it was around 35,000 euros. Some organised groups have even managed to buy a kilo for as much as 18,000 euros. The price of a gram of cocaine in Spain or the Netherlands has barely changed over the years. All signs indicate that there remains adequate supply despite all the record interceptions welcomed with much trumpeting.

Every seizure of cocaine at the ports of Antwerp and Rotterdam is offset by increased production in Colombia, Peru and Bolivia. My institute has calculated, based on UNODC figures, that in Colombia more hectares of rainforest are deforested as a result of drug control – from global seizures to destruction of coca crops (180,000 hectares) – than are grown for consumption (143,000 hectares). And every arrested offender in the port of Rotterdam is replaced by an often new minor. It is the law of communicating vessels of drug control: you can take something away temporarily, but it will replenish itself.

Hence a plea for an experiment. Instead of burning confiscated cocaine in the incinerator, it could be used to start an experiment with a regulated cocaine market. That way you kill two birds with one stone: you take away the criminals' cocaine and you take away their market, making new illegal supply meaningless. By definition, the experiment is temporary, because at some point not enough cocaine will be seized to sustain the experiment. By then, we may be convinced that a regulated market is more effective in tackling organized drug crime. 

The advantage is that the Netherlands and other like-minded countries continue to meet their international obligations that are so difficult to change (after all, we continue to intercept cocaine) and at the same time start working on possible alternatives. Of course, there are still a lot of snags in such an experiment. How does a regulated cocaine market work (cocaine, of course, is a lot more harmful than cannabis)? But legally regulated drug markets are not new. The Netherlands and Switzerland are currently experimenting with a legal cannabis market. Canada, Uruguay and 24 of the 50 states in the U.S. already have them. Much can be learned from those.