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At a time of critical political transition in Myanmar, failure to address the root causes of armed conflict and to create an inclusive political process to solve nationality grievances is only likely to have a very detrimental impact on the prospects for peace, democracy and development
The renewed violence in the Kokang region of the northern Shan state in February 2015 has had serious repercussions for efforts to solve ethnic conflict in Burma/Myanmar and end the decades-old civil war. The fighting started when troops led by the veteran Kokang leader Pheung Kya-shin (Peng Jiasheng) resurfaced in the Kokang region and attacked government and army positions after an interval of nearly six years. Pheung Kya-shin’s Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), a former ceasefire group and government ally, was ousted from the Kokang region in 2009 by a rival Kokang leader with the help of the Tatmadaw (national armed forces). This coup happened after Pheung’s MNDAA had refused to accept the demand of the previous military government to transform into a Border Guard Force (BGF).
The outbreak of renewed conflict in the Kokang region has, in turn, clouded the prospects of achieving a nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) in Myanmar. Battles broke out while negotiations were ongoing in Yangon. For while other ethnic armed organisations have called for peace talks and a halt to the renewed fighting, the quasi-civilian government under President Thein Sein has so far refused to address the Kokang crisis by political means. The Tatmadaw has responded with a large military offensive, supported by air strikes, in an all-out effort to drive out the MNDAA from the Kokang region. Although the MNDAA declared a unilateral ceasefire in June, the conflict continues and the MNDAA is still holding ground, with the Tatmadaw making rare public admissions of taking casualties.